Apple Inc. (NYSE: AAPL) and Exxon (NYSE: XOM) have been delivering differential returns over the last years including in 2021 and and Q1-Q2 2022. At its height, by early December 2021, Apple stock price had risen by 125%, YoY. Since then stock growth has become negative, although still outperforming most of the stocks and the stock market indices, with -15% YTD as of July 15, 2022, vs 27.5% for NASDAQ Composite (^IXIC) and -13.90% for Dow Jones Industrial Average (^DJI). The oil industry has benefited during the period, with Crude Oil Aug 22 (CL=F) index growing by +29.73 % YTD and Exxon Mobil Corporation (XOM) by +38.16% YTD. The stock market has lost momentum while the oil industry has gained following the increasing market volatility, inflation, world events, and other dynamics since late Q3 2022. AroniSmart™ team, leveraging the Machine Learning Time Series capabilities, including Support Vector Machine, and Dominance Analysis of AroniSmartIntelligence™ and AroniSmartInvest™, has looked at the trends of the stock price of AAPL vs the stock prices of 20 selected companies between Q3 2021 and Q3 2022 and came up with insights and projections on the dynamics. The insights are presented below (for disclaimer and terms, check AroniSoft website).
A little bit of the usual investment research before coming back to AroniSmart™'s findings.
Apple Inc. (NYSE: AAPL) has consistently delivered strong returns since 2017. Following the deep analysis of March 2021 (See: AroniSmartIntelligence™ in Action: Apple (AAPL) Stock Performance Support Vector Machine and Dominance Analysis in Q1 2021), Apple stock has increased by 28%, despite increased volatility in some periods.
As of early December 2021, Apple stock dynamics appeared to have moved beyond or factored in the factors that were affecting the overal market in early 2021, such as COVID-19 pandemic, the last US general elections, the uncertainty on the job market, the growing inflation, and the economic policies. Then, in line of the trends of the entire stock market, Apple Stock price started to slow down and to decline. The dynamics were driven by factors such as increasing inflation, worries of a looming economic recession, world events, and economic policies, including rising interest rates. Meanwhile, unlike other industries, the oil sector continued to see a rise, fueling inflation.
In recent weeks, starting with the end of Q2 2022, Apple Stock has started to come back, with a gain of 15.46% in the last month. The factors impacting Apple stock performance in Q3 2022 appear to be similar to those that fueled the momentum in 2021 : dynamics within the TECH sectors in general, Apple's 5G innovation including the launch of new products, and continued rumors about Apple investment in EV and other innovations.
In the same period, the oil industry has experienced a decline, with the crude oil index shedding 17.03% and Exxon (XOM stock) price losing 7.50%.
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New Products at Apple
Since 2017, Apple has heavily invested in new technologies and products, including new chips and 5G. The innovations have been the center of Apple's performance and projections.
Beyond A15 chip, a faster system-on-a-chip in the next iPhones, Apple has been driving the adoption of 5G technologies in all its iPhones. In February 2021, iPhone 12 Pro Max was named the most popular 5G smartphone in the United States of America. In the USA, iPhone 12 models feature ultra-fast mmWave 5G in the US. It is belived that the upcoming iPhone 13 models could expand mmWave into most countries.
In December 2020, media reports confirmed that Apple was working on EV and targeting 2024 for production, with a more advanced battery technology. Independent EV remains a distant reality for Apple, but there are also rumors that Apple may partner with a car maker to accelerate the timelines.
Since January 2021, Apple has released the 24-inch iMac, new iPads, new Mac Mini, the new Apple TV, and AirTags. In the very near future, it is expected that Apple will release new iPhones, MacBook Pros, and probably many more products built on the latest technologies.
Oil Industry and Products at Apple
There have been increased warnings that the world will be experiencing a global energy crisis. Meanwhile, the war in Ukraine and the disruptions in supply chains have increased worries surrounding supplies in Europe and around the world. These worries have fueled the oil prices since 2021. However, crude prices started trending lower in the end of Q2 2022, amid rising concerns over a potential recession, forecasts in demand downtrend. U.S. gasoline prices started to fall and are projected to continue the decline in coming weeks. West Texas Intermediate crude (WTI) and Brent crude (BRENT) have significantly declined going below $100.00 / barrel, before rising on the news of uncertainty in OPEC's decisions. The stock price of XOM has following these trends.
Based on all these factors, over the last years and quarters, AAPL has consistently outperformed several technology companies and other stocks. Then in early January 2022, Apple, as many TECH stocks and all market indices went on a downward trend. The trend was halted in late June 2022. Since then, the stock price is gradually going up, while the price of XOM is gradually declining.
AroniSmart™ team analyzed Apple's stock performance dynamics, leveraging the Support Vector Machine and Dominance Analysis capabilities of AroniSmartIntelligence™ and uncovered interesting insights, as shown below. The team analyzed the performance of AAPL vs 9 other internally selected stocks from July 16, 2021 to July 15, 2022.
AroniSmartIntelligence™ Analysis: Apple continued to exhibit behaviors similar to those of several stocks, but with an high momentum.
From the analysis, it was found that most of these stocks basically follow similar trends. Also, they are all impacted by the market conditions. However, the analysis found important nuances.
The key findings highlight with a positive view: most of the stocks studied, except XOM, had a reverse trend over the period. Like the general stock market, they faced a momentum in Q3-Q4 2021, followed by slowdown and high volatility in late Q1-Q2 2022. Since then the performance seems to be volatile but better than in Q1- early Q2 2022. Trendwise, since late June 2022, the stocks appear to be positively reacting to news, but uncertainty and volatility remain. Even for XOM, which is rather trending in the opposite direction.
Figure 1: Key Stocks Price Trends in Q2-Q3 2022 -- Training Data model.
Figure 2: Key Stocks Price Trends in Q2-Q3 2022 -- Test Data model.
Over 2021 Apple (AAPL) built on an earlier momentum, beating most of the stocks under the AroniSmart study.
By July of 2021 most stocks were above the average Q1 2021 levels. In early Q2 2021, Apple's momentum was significantly impacted by the market conditions. In late May 2021, it bounced back (see chart below). Since then, the Apple stock has maintained the momentum.
Figure 3: Key Stocks Price Trends since August 2020 -- Test Data model estimates
Figure 4: Apple Stock Price Trends and AroniSmart Projections Analysis Between Jan 2021 and May 2021
Figure 4: Apple Stock Price Trends and AroniSmart Projections Analysis Between May 2021 and August 2021
AroniSmartIntelligence™ modelling shows the prices of the stocks that appear to mirror each other: a high opening for the stocks that tends to lead a decline or slow down in Apple's closing price and a high opening for the stocks that tends to lead an increase or growth in Apple's closing price. Late Q2 - Early Q3 dynamics appear to positively impact Apple's prices, whereas Q1- Q2 2022 appears to have been challenging.
AroniSmartIntelligence™ analysis, using Support Vector Machine modelling, below shows the weights of the different stocks, with WMT, BAC, LOW and LOW being on the negative side, GOOG, C, META, MSFT, NVDA on positive side and LOW on the neutral side.
Figure 5: Apple Stock Price Dynamics - AroniSmart Support Vector Machine Analysis Results on the Period Between July 2021 and July 2022
AroniSmartLytics™ Dominance Analysis confirms Support Vector Machine results: Apple momentum impacted in 2021-2022 and aligned with the momentum of most of other stocks.
AroniSmart™ team analyzed Apple's performance dynamics using Dominance Analysis capabilities of AroniSmartIntelligence™ and uncovered insights confirming the performance dynamics of XOM vs 9 other internally selected stocks from July 2021 to July 2022. See below:
More detailed analyses can be conducted using AroniSmartIntelligence™ Big Data, Machine Learning, Time Series and Sentiment Analysis capabilities.
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